Author:
Wang Jie,Li Chao,Li Jing,Qin Sheng,Liu Chunlei,Wang Jiaojiao,Chen Zhe,Wu Jianhui,Wang Guoli
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The prevalence of metabolic syndrome continues to rise sharply worldwide, seriously threatening people’s health. The optimal model can be used to identify people at high risk of metabolic syndrome as early as possible, to predict their risk, and to persuade them to change their adverse lifestyle so as to slow down and reduce the incidence of metabolic syndrome.
Methods
Design existing circumstances research. A total of 1468 workers from an oil company who participated in occupational health physical examination from April 2017 to October 2018 were included in this study. We established the Logistic regression model, the random forest model and the convolutional neural network model, and compared the prediction performance of the models according to the F1 score, sensitivity, accuracy and other indicators of the three models.
Results
The results showed that the accuracy of the three models was 82.49,95.98 and 92.03%, the sensitivity was 87.94,95.52 and 90.59%, the specificity was 74.54, 96.65 and 94.14%, the F1 score was 0.86,0.97 and 0.93, and the area under ROC curve was 0.88,0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The Brier score of the three models was 0.15, 0.08 and 0.12, Observed-expected ratio was 0.83, 0.97 and 1.13, and the Integrated Calibration Index was 0.075,0.073 and 0.074, respectively, and explained how the random forest model was used for individual disease risk score.
Conclusions
The study showed that the prediction performance of random forest model is better than other models, and the model has higher application value, which can better predict the risk of metabolic syndrome in oil workers, and provide corresponding theoretical basis for the health management of oil workers.
Funder
National Key R&D Program of China
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Reference42 articles.
1. Li W, Song F, Wang X, et al. Relationship between metabolic syndrome and its components and cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and elderly Chinese population: a national cross-sectional survey. BMJ Open. 2019;9(8):e27545.
2. Low S, Khoo K, Wang J, et al. Development of a metabolic syndrome severity score and its association with incident diabetes in an Asian population—results from a longitudinal cohort in Singapore. Endocrine. 2019;65(1):73–80.
3. Chen J, Kong X, Jia X, et al. Association between metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease in a Chinese urban population. Clin Chim Acta. 2017;470:103–8.
4. Alberti KG, Zimmet PZ. Definition, diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus and its complications. Part 1: diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus. Provisional report of a WHO consultation. Diabet Med. 1998;15(7):539–53.
5. Kuhar MB. Executive summary of the third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) expert panel on detection, evaluation, and treatment of high blood cholesterol in adults (adult treatment panel III). Circulation. 2001;106(25):2486–97.
Cited by
9 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献