Author:
Liu Hengcong,Zhang Juanjuan,Cai Jun,Deng Xiaowei,Peng Cheng,Chen Xinghui,Yang Juan,Wu Qianhui,Chen Xinhua,Chen Zhiyuan,Zheng Wen,Viboud Cécile,Zhang Wenhong,Ajelli Marco,Yu Hongjie
Abstract
Abstract
Background
To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.
Methods
We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided.
Results
We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021 and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimated that, assuming a vaccine efficacy of 90% against the infection, vaccine-induced herd immunity would require a coverage of 93% or higher of the Chinese population. However, even when vaccine-induced herd immunity is not reached, we estimated that vaccination programs can reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 50–62% in case of an all-or-nothing vaccine model and an epidemic starts to unfold on December 1, 2021.
Conclusions
Efforts should be taken to increase population’s confidence and willingness to be vaccinated and to develop highly efficacious vaccines for a wide age range.
Funder
the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care - Greater Manchester
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases and Biosafety Emergency Response
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
10 articles.
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