Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Abstract

Abstract Background To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child–Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation. Results Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736–0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743–0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735–0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726–0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child–Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation. Conclusion The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.