Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy influences clinical outcomes and enhances performance of conventional risk prediction models in acute‐on‐chronic liver failure with severe sepsis

Abstract

SummaryBackgroundPoint‐of‐care echocardiography (POC‐Echo) is an essential intensive care hemodynamic monitoring tool.AimsTo assess POC‐Echo parameters [i.e., cardiac index (CI), systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI) and cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) markers] and serum biomarkers in predicting circulatory failure (need for vasopressors) and mortality in patients with acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) having sepsis‐induced hypotension.MethodsWe performed serial POC‐Echo within 6 hours (h) of presentation and subsequently at 24, 48 and 72 h in patients with ACLF and sepsis‐induced hypotension admitted to our liver intensive care unit. Clinical data, POC‐Echo data and serum biomarkers were collected prospectively.ResultsWe enrolled 120 patients [59% men, aged 49 ± 12 years, 56% alcohol‐related disease and median MELDNa of 30 (27–32)], of whom 68 (56.6%) had circulatory failure, with overall mortality of 60%. CCM was present in 52.5%. The predictors of circulatory failure were CI (aHR −1.5; p = 0.021), N‐terminal brain natriuretic peptide (aHR −1.1; p = 0.007) and CCM markers; e′ septal mitral velocity (aHR −0.5; p = 0.039) and E/e′ ratio (aHR −1.2; p = 0.045). Reduction in CI by 20% and SVRI by 15% at 72 h predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 84% and 72%, and specificity 76% and 65%, respectively (p < 0.001). The MELD‐CCM model and CLIF‐CCM model were computed as MELDNa + 1.815 × E/e′ (septal) + 0.402 × e′ (septal) and CLIF‐C ACLF + 1.815 × E/e′ (septal) + 0.402 × e′ (septal), respectively, based on multivariable logistic regression. Both scores outperformed MELDNa (z‐score = −2.073, p = 0.038) and CLIF‐C ACLF score (z score = −2.683, p‐value = 0.007), respectively, in predicting 90‐day mortality.ConclusionPOC‐Echo measurements such as CCM markers (E/e' and e' velocity) and change in CI reliably predict circulatory failure and mortality in ACLF with severe sepsis. CCM markers significantly enhanced the CLIF‐C ACLF and MELDNa predictive performance.