Development of nomogram models of inflammatory markers based on clinical database to predict prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection

Abstract

Abstract Background Inflammation plays a significant role in tumour development, progression, and metastasis. In this study, we focused on comparing the predictive potential of inflammatory markers for overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and 1- and 2-year RFS in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Methods A total of 360 HCC patients were included in this study. A LASSO regression analysis model was used for data dimensionality reduction and element selection. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for HCC prognosis. Nomogram prediction models were established and decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to determine the clinical utility of the nomogram model. Results Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were independent prognostic factors of OS, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI) was a common independent prognostic factor among RFS, 1-year RFS, and 2-year RFS. The systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) was an independent prognostic factor for 1-year RFS in HCC patients after curative resection. Nomograms established and achieved a better concordance index of 0.772(95% CI: 0.730-0.814), 0.774(95% CI: 0.734-0.815), 0.809(95% CI: 0.766-0.852), and 0.756(95% CI: 0.696-0.816) in predicting OS, RFS, 1-year RFS, and 2-year RFS respectively. The risk scores calculated by nomogram models divided HCC patients into high-, moderate- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05). DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram models could augment net benefits and exhibited a wider range of threshold probabilities in the prediction of HCC prognosis. Conclusions The nomograms showed high predictive accuracy for OS, RFS, 1-year RFS, and 2-year RFS in HCC patients after surgical resection. The nomograms could be useful clinical tools to guide a rational and personalized treatment approach and prognosis judgement.