An empirical model for estimating daily atmospheric column-averaged CO2 concentration above São Paulo state, Brazil

Abstract

Abstract Background The recent studies of the variations in the atmospheric column-averaged CO2 concentration ($${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 ) above croplands and forests show a negative correlation between $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 and Sun Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) and confirmed that photosynthesis is the main regulator of the terrestrial uptake for atmospheric CO2. The remote sensing techniques in this context are very important to observe this relation, however, there is still a time gap in orbital data, since the observation is not daily. Here we analyzed the effects of several variables related to the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation on $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 above São Paulo state during the period from 2015 to 2019 and propose a daily model to estimate the natural changes in atmospheric CO2. Results The data retrieved from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), NASA-POWER and Application for Extracting and Exploring Analysis Ready Samples (AppEEARS) show that Global Radiation (Qg), Sun Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) and, Relative Humidity (RH) are the most significant factors for predicting the annual $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 cycle. The daily model of $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 estimated from Qg and RH predicts daily $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 with root mean squared error of 0.47 ppm (the coefficient of determination is equal to 0.44, p < 0.01). Conclusion The obtained results imply that a significant part of daily $${\text{X}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{{2}} }}$$ X CO 2 variations could be explained by meteorological factors and that further research should be done to quantify the effects of the atmospheric transport and anthropogenic emissions.