Prognostic value of baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy

Abstract

Abstract Purpose To investigate the prognostic value of baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy. Methods A total of 98 ESCC patients with cTNM stage T1-4, N1-3, M0 who received definitive (chemo)radiotherapy after 18F-FDG PET/CT examination from December 2013 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical factors included age, sex, histologic differentiation grade, tumor location, clinical stage, and treatment strategies. Parameters obtained by 18F-FDG PET/CT included SUVmax of primary tumor (SUVTumor), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), SUVmax of lymph node (SUVLN), PET positive lymph nodes (PLNS) number, the shortest distance between the farthest PET positive lymph node and the primary tumor in three-dimensional space after the standardization of the patient BSA (SDmax(LN-T)). Univariate and multivariate analysis was conducted by Cox proportional hazard model to explore the significant factors affecting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in ESCC patients. Results Univariate analysis showed that tumor location, SUVTumor, MTV, TLG, PLNS number, SDmax (LN-T) were significant predictors of OS and tumor location, and clinical T stage, SUVTumor, MTV, TLG, SDmax (LN-T) were significant predictors of PFS (all p < 0.1). Multivariate analysis showed that MTV and SDmax (LN-T) were independent prognostic factors for OS (HR = 1.018, 95% CI 1.006–1.031; p = 0.005; HR = 6.988, 95% CI 2.119–23.042; p = 0.001) and PFS (HR = 1.019, 95% CI 1.005–1.034; p = 0.009; HR = 5.819, 95% CI 1.921–17.628; p = 0.002). Combined with independent prognostic factors MTV and SDmax (LN-T), we can further stratify patient risk. Conclusions Before treatment, 18F-FDG PET/CT has important prognostic value for patients with ESCC treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy. The lower the value of MTV and SDmax (LN-T), the better the prognosis of patients.