Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia

Abstract

AbstractClimate change and soil erosion are very associated with environmental defiance which affects the life sustainability of humans. However, the potency effects of both events in tropical regions are arduous to be estimated due to atmospheric conditions and unsustainable land use management. Therefore, several models can be used to predict the impacts of distinct climate scenarios on human and environmental relationships. In this study, we aimed to predict current and future soil erosion potential in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia under different Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) scenarios (e.g., SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5). Our results found the predicted mean soil erosion values for the baseline scenario (2019–2021) was around 50.42 t/ha year. The mining areas recorded the highest soil erosion values located in the southeastern part. The high future soil erosion values (36.15 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP4.5 during 2060–2080. Whilst, the lowest values (33.30 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP2.6 during 2040–2060. According to CMIP6, the future soil erosion potential in the study area would reduce by approximately 33.9% compared to the baseline year (2019–2021). The rainfall erosivity factor majorly affected soil erosion potential in the study area. The output of the study will contribute to achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.