International time trends in sudden unexpected infant death, 1969–2012

Abstract

Abstract Background Sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) - including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) - continues to be a major contributor to infant mortality worldwide. Our objective was to analyse time trends and to identify country-clusters. Methods The National Statistical Offices of 52 countries provided the number of deaths and live births (1969–2012). We calculated infant mortality rates per 1000 live births for SUID, SIDS, and all-cause mortality. Overall, 29 countries provided sufficient data for time course analyses of SUID. To sensitively model change over time, we smoothed the curves of mortality rates (1980–2010). We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify clusters of time trends for SUID and SIDS, including all-cause infant mortality. Results All-cause infant mortality declined from 28.5 to 4.8 per 1000 live births (mean 12.4; 95% confidence interval 12.0–12.9) between 1969 and 2012. The cluster analysis revealed four country-clusters. Clusters 1 and 2 mostly contained countries showing the typical peak of SUID mortality during the 1980s. Cluster 1 had higher SUID mortality compared to cluster 2. All-cause infant mortality was low in both clusters but higher in cluster 1 compared to cluster 2. Clusters 3 and 4 had low rates of SUID without a peak during the 1980s. Cluster 3 had the highest all-cause infant mortality of all clusters. Cluster 4 had an intermediate all-cause infant mortality. The time trends of SUID and SIDS mortality were similar. Conclusions The country-specific time trends in SUID varied considerably. The identification of country-clusters may promote research into how changes in sleep position, smoking, immunisation, or other factors are related to our findings.