Abstract
Abstract
Background
Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes.
Results
Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal.
Conclusion
Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Veterinary,General Medicine
Cited by
10 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献