Modelling and determination of the transmission contact rate for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia

Abstract

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a cattle respiratory disease that represents one of the major threats to cattle health and production in sub-Saharan Africa. The transmission contact rate of CBPP plays a key role in the spreading dynamics of the disease. We have developed an approach based on the combination of a SEIR model describing the spread of CBPP with the dynamic of seroconversion to determine the transmission contact rate for CBPP. This method has been subsequently applied to serological diagnostic data obtained from an experimental vaccine trial. As a result, we find that the transmission contact rates for subclinical, clinical and chronic infective states are respectively, 0·084/N, 0·45 and 0·14/N per animal per day, where N is the herd population size, and the basic reproductive number corresponding to this trial (N=28) is R0=27.