Carbon neutral Bhutan: sustaining carbon neutral status under growth pressures

Abstract

Abstract Background Bhutan has pledged to remain carbon neutral (CN) in perpetuity. Whether they can sustain this is questionable due to the country’s increasing economic growth (GDP) and commitment to gross national happiness (GNH) outcomes, both of which can lead to a rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The nexus between GHG, GNH and GDP is the essence of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals global project. Results Through scenario modelling using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, the study finds that the carbon neutral declaration will derail between 2037 and 2050 without mitigation measures. By putting in place mitigation measures especially in the industry and transport sectors, CN can be retained even under high growth pressure, which may cost just 2% of GDP. CN can be easily retained under low economic growth, but this could undermine GNH. High growth will require immediate interventions to enable electrification of industry and transport. Conclusions The options to remain CN will require Bhutan to adopt more efficient technologies and electrify industry and transport under both low and high growth scenarios. The additional cost to the Bhutanese economy is feasible through low and high growth opportunities. The options are similar to those confronting emerging nations struggling with issues of climate commitments under economic growth pressures. All will need to adapt their specific economic contexts to achieve the simultaneous objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals whilst addressing the net zero Paris agenda. Bhutan shows it is possible.