Author:
Drakesmith Mark,Collins Brendan,Jones Angela,Nnoaham Kelechi,Thomas Daniel Rhys
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Mass community testing for SARS-CoV-2 by lateral flow devices (LFDs) aims to reduce prevalence in the community. However its effectiveness as a public heath intervention is disputed.
Method
Data from a mass testing pilot in the Borough of Merthyr Tydfil in late 2020 was used to model cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths prevented. Further economic analysis with a healthcare perspective assessed cost-effectiveness in terms of healthcare costs avoided and QALYs gained.
Results
An initial conservative estimate of 360 (95% CI: 311–418) cases were prevented by the mass testing, representing a would-be reduction of 11% of all cases diagnosed in Merthyr Tydfil residents during the same period. Modelling healthcare burden estimates that 24 (16—36) hospitalizations, 5 (3–6) ICU admissions and 15 (11–20) deaths were prevented, representing 6.37%, 11.1% and 8.2%, respectively of the actual counts during the same period. A less conservative, best-case scenario predicts 2333 (1764–3115) cases prevented, representing 80% reduction in would-be cases. Cost -effectiveness analysis indicates 108 (80–143) QALYs gained, an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,143 (£860-£4,175) per QALY gained and net monetary benefit of £6.2 m (£4.5 m-£8.4 m). In the best-case scenario, this increases to £15.9 m (£12.3 m-£20.5 m).
Conclusions
A non-negligible number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths were prevented by the mass testing pilot. Considering QALYs gained and healthcare costs avoided, the pilot was cost-effective. These findings suggest mass testing with LFDs in areas of high prevalence (> 2%) is likely to provide significant public health benefit. It is not yet clear whether similar benefits will be obtained in low prevalence settings or with vaccination rollout.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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