Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2022-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2022

Published:2023-03-20 Issue:6 Volume:50 Page:
ISSN:0094-8276
Container-title:Geophysical Research Letters
language:en
Short-container-title:Geophysical Research Letters

Author:

Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth Edward¹^ORCID,Bushuk Mitchell²^ORCID,Massonnet François³^ORCID,Hamilton Lawrence C.⁴^ORCID,Bitz Cecilia M.¹^ORCID,Meier Walter N.⁵,Bhatt Uma S.⁶^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA

2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA

3. Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM) Earth and Life Institute (ELI) Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) Louvain‐la‐Neuve Belgium

4. Sociology Department University of New Hampshire Durham NH USA

5. National Snow and Ice Data Center CIRES University of Colorado Boulder CO USA

6. University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA

Abstract

AbstractWe assess the skill of forecasts of Arctic September sea ice in the Sea Ice Outlook over 2008–2022. The multi‐model median June initialized forecast of September sea ice extent (SIE) is slightly more skilled (RMSE = 0.48 million km2) than a damped anomaly forecast, but July and August initialized forecasts (RMSE = 0.52 and 0.36 million km2 respectively) do not beat this benchmark. The skill of individual dynamical and statistical SIE forecasts is lower than the multi‐model median forecast skill. Overall skill is lower than expected from retrospective forecasts. Several forecasts initialized in early September 2021 and 2022 imply physically improbable values. Spatial forecasts of sea ice concentration show multi‐model forecast skill and an improvement in individual forecast skill in recent years. Initial conditions show large spread in sea ice volume and a positive correlation between initialized sea ice volume and September SIE forecast. Summer weather has an impact on forecast error.

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,Geophysics

Link

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022GL102531

Reference22 articles.

1. Persistence and Inherent Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a GCM Ensemble and Observations

2. Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

3. Model forecast skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in the seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

4. Regional Arctic sea–ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill

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