Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Author:

Ballarin André S.12ORCID,Wendland Edson1ORCID,Zaerpour Masoud2ORCID,Hatami Shadi23ORCID,Meira Neto Antônio A.4ORCID,Papalexiou Simon Michael25ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering São Carlos School of Engineering University of São Paulo São Carlos Brazil

2. Department of Civil Engineering University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada

3. Department of Bioresources Engineering McGill University Ste‐Anne‐de‐Bellevue QC Canada

4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA

5. Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic

Abstract

AbstractExtreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right‐tail of the rainfall distribution using a non‐parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non‐extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100‐year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.

Funder

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),General Environmental Science

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