Tropospheric and Stratospheric Boreal Winter Jet Response to Eddying Ocean in a Seasonal Forecast System

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding the impacts of high‐resolution ocean model provides valuable insights for future research. However, the outcomes of sea surface state changes in both the tropics and mid‐latitudes remain unclear, and initialized seasonal forecasts have not been studied extensively. This study investigates the impact of ocean model resolution with the first long‐term hindcast experiment of an eddy‐resolving (0.1°) ocean model used for global seasonal forecasting. We show that using the high‐resolution ocean model significantly changes boreal winter jet streams in the atmosphere, based on the comparison of 30‐year hindcasts with ocean resolutions ranging from 1° to 0.1° for the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Prediction System version 3. In boreal winters, the cold sea surface bias in the equatorial Pacific is significantly reduced, leading to an equatorward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and enhanced convective activity in the western equatorial Pacific. The subtropical jet shifts equatorward due to the ITCZ shift and the weakening of equatorward propagation of mid‐latitude atmospheric eddies. The enhanced convective activity in the tropics has a remote influence in the mid‐latitudes, significantly reducing the upward eddy propagation of zonal wavenumber 1. Sea surface warm‐up in the mid‐latitudes partially cancels the reduction impact by enhancing the zonal wavenumber 2. Overall, the polar night jet accelerates due to the reduced supply of eddy forcing.