Macroeconomic Factors and Capital Markets. Selected Experiences in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Abstract The relationship between capital markets and macroeconomic variables is well documented in developed financial markets, but still developing in emerging financial markets. This paper looks at young financial markets from Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on two markets in the region: Romania and Hungary. Capital markets in these countries are analyzed from the perspective of two of their components: stock exchange markets and mutual funds markets and the effects of five macroeconomic variables (population, GDP/capita, inflation, unemployment, and savings) on the two components assessed. From a methodological point of view, the multiple regression analysis is employed for the period 2003-2019. The analysis is conducted in a comparative manner from two viewpoints: comparing stock exchanges with mutual funds markets and the role played by the macro-level determinants in the development of each and comparing the two national financial markets with one another. The study concludes that macroeconomic factors influence more the development of the stock exchanges than the development of mutual funds and that in the analyzed period, in Romania the impact of the macroeconomic factors on capital markets was stronger than in Hungary.