Decoding the Stock Market and GDP Relationship Over the Long Term: Implications for Index Fund Investments

Abstract

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between GDP and the stock market over the long term, intending to understand the implications for Index Fund investments. A quantitative research method, using US (United States) GDP as an independent variable, and the S&P 500 index as a dependent variable, is employed. A population of 29 years, from 1990 to 2019, of data on US GDP and the S&P 500 from official US sources was used. Linear regression analysis with SPSS calculating techniques is performed to determine whether there is a relationship between GDP growth and the stock market (S&P 500). The results show a significant positive relationship between GDP growth and S&P 500 performance. β coefficient of the regression analysis of 0.911 shows a strong correlation between the GDP and the S&P 500. Our findings are also scientifically validated by the sig (P value) coefficient of 0.0000000000012. In addition, an R Square of 0.830 shows that our model explains all the variability of the response data around the mean at a level of 83%. The positive results of GDP and the stock market relationship, indicate considerable implications for Index Funds investments. Therefore, adding academic value to the practical financial implication aspects.