Reliability computation for an uncertain PVC window production system using a modified bayesian estimation

Abstract

Nowadays, Industries have been receiving much attention in Failure modelling and reliability assessment of repairable systems due to the fact that it plays a crucial role in risk and safety management of process. The primary purpose of this article is to present a methodology for discussing uncertainty in the reliability assessment if the production system. In fact, we discuss the fuzzy E-Bayesian estimation of reliability for PVC window production system. This approach is used to create the fuzzy E-Bayesian estimations of system reliability by introducing and applying a theorem called “Resolution Identity” for fuzzy sets. To be more specific, the model parameters are assumed to be fuzzy random variables. For this purpose, the original problem is transformed into a nonlinear programming problem which is divided into four sub-problems to simplify the computations. Finally, the results obtained for the sub-problems can be used to determine the membership functions of the fuzzy E-Bayesian estimation of system reliability. To clarify the proposed model, a practical example for PVC window production system is conducted.