NEW MODELS FOR ESTIMATION OF DIFFUSE SOLAR RADIATION USING METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS FOR BENIN, NIGERIA

Abstract

In this comprehensive study, an extensive 22-year dataset (2001-2022) for Benin (Latitude 6.32 oN, Longitude 5.10 oE and 77.80 m above sea level) were obtained from the National Aeronautic Space Administration (NASA) website. The datasets comprises of the monthly average daily global solar radiation, diffuse solar radiation, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and mean temperature, was utilized to develop 19 new models for estimating diffuse solar radiation. These models were categorized into five distinct groups: modified Page, Liu and Jordan models; clearness index and one-variable models; two-variable models; three-variable models, and a four-variable model. These models were statistically evaluated using a set of five validation indices—Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Percentage Error (MPE), t-test, and the coefficient of determination (R²). The study identified the most effective models in each category. Equation 28b from the modified Page, Liu and Jordan category, Equation 28f from the clearness index and one-variable models, Equation 28j from the two-variable models, and Equation 28o from the three-variable models category were found to be the best-performing models. A comparative assessment of these performed models revealed that the quadratic regression model (Equation 28b) stood out as the most suitable for accurately estimating diffuse solar radiation in Benin. This implies that the developed model equation 28b can be used to estimate the diffuse solar radiation for Benin and locations with similar climatic conditions