DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN UKRAINE: THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

In recent years, Ukraine and most regions and countries are experiencing rapid demographic changes. The demographic transition is characterized by the exhaustion of demographic potential caused by the unfavorable socio-demographic situation in the country. This article aims to describe the current demographic situation in Ukraine and reveal major demographic trends leading to economic, social, and environmental unbalances and malfunctions of development models in Ukraine. Tendency for the Ukrainian population decline is caused predominantly by a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. Women’s fertility has dropped rapidly, and life expectancy has stagnated, driven primarily by unfavorable economic situation, political instability, poor health care system, and social inequality. In Ukraine as in many countries, regardless of the level of their economic development, fertility rates are now below 2.15 children per woman, treated as a long-term replacement rate. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to an increasingly older population. The aging of society is a challenging phenomenon which characterizes the current stage of the global demographic transition. Migration is another trend that leads to unprecedented demographic changes resulting in more evident variation in aging at the regional level. Ukraine is experiencing the move from rural to urban areas within countries and across borders which causes deprivation of the rural regions and redistribution of the working-age population. Nowadays, the demographic situation results from the adverse impact of internal and external factors. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may lead to a demographic catastrophe. However, the scale of war consequences is hardly estimable. It is unknown how this war will evolve or when and how it will end, but it has already substantially affected Ukraine’s population.