A Long-Term View of Refugee Flows from Ukraine: War, Insecurities, and Migration

Abstract

This article examines the exodus of migrants from Ukraine in the context of the Russian invasion, making use of the conflict model of migration. We argue that Ukraine has long been characterized by insecurities which have already fueled large waves of emigration from the country. Indeed, the most recent phase of Ukrainian emigration should be seen as a continuation of the ongoing tendency of people residing in the country to seek escape from the overarching conditions of insecurity there. Earlier migrations from Ukraine have also established a culture of migration which has mediated the outflow of Ukrainians during the current crisis. Ukrainians who had already harboured inclinations to leave the country and who were possessed of the necessary capabilities (i.e. social capital, financial capital, human capital and physical ability) became mobile at the onset of the invasion in February, while many others were left behind. At the same time, the welcoming attitude of many European states has been key to the fast and safe exodus of Ukrainian migrants thus far.