Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change

Author:

Chakraborty DebojyotiORCID,Ciceu AlbertORCID,Ballian Dalibor,Benito Garzón MartaORCID,Bolte AndreasORCID,Bozic GregorORCID,Buchacher Rafael,Čepl JaroslavORCID,Cremer Eva,Ducousso Alexis,Gaviria Julian,George Jan PeterORCID,Hardtke André,Ivankovic Mladen,Klisz MarcinORCID,Kowalczyk JanORCID,Kremer AntoineORCID,Lstibůrek MilanORCID,Longauer Roman,Mihai GeorgetaORCID,Nagy LászlóORCID,Petkova Krasimira,Popov Emil,Schirmer Randolf,Skrøppa Tore,Solvin Thomas MørtvedtORCID,Steffenrem ArneORCID,Stejskal JanORCID,Stojnic Srdjan,Volmer Katharina,Schueler SilvioORCID

Abstract

AbstractClimate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr−1) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr−1.

Funder

EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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