Negotiating Nile infrastructure management should consider climate change uncertainties

Author:

Basheer MohammedORCID,Nechifor VictorORCID,Calzadilla AlvaroORCID,Gebrechorkos Solomon,Pritchard David,Forsythe NathanORCID,Gonzalez Jose M.ORCID,Sheffield Justin,Fowler Hayley J.,Harou Julien J.ORCID

Funder

RCUK | Economic and Social Research Council

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

Reference5 articles.

1. Basheer, M. et al. Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience. Nat. Commun. 12, 5622 (2021). This study describes the integrated economy-wide and river system simulation used to model the interlinkages between the Nile River system and the economies of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.

2. Basheer, M. et al. Balancing national economic policy outcomes for sustainable development. Nat. Commun. 13, 5041 (2022). This article connects economy-wide simulation with artificial intelligence search and machine learning. This shows that the multi-objective design approach used in the present study is general; it can be used in a wide range of contexts to find efficient policies and the trade-offs and synergies they imply.

3. O’Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016). This paper describes the climate change scenarios of the CMIP6, from which some scenarios have been bias-corrected, downscaled and then used in simulating the impacts of climate change on the Nile Basin and its riparian economies. More scenarios were synthesized to address the ‘East African climate paradox’.

4. Marchau, V. A. W. J., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J. T. M. & Popper, S. W. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (Springer Nature, 2019). This book provides a review of methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty (such as climate change), which motivated the adaptive management formulation used for the GERD in our study.

5. Edrees, M. Letter dated 11 June 2021 from the Permanent Representative of Egypt to the United Nations Addressed to the Secretary-Genera (United Nations, 2021); https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3931750?ln=en. This document is a letter from the Permanent Representative of Egypt to the United Nations to the President of the United Nations Security Council, in which the Washington draft proposal for filling and operating the GERD is annexed.

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