Abstract
AbstractThe ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.
Funder
United States Department of Commerce | NOAA | Climate Program Office
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference54 articles.
1. Davis, J. C. Minimal dissolved oxygen requirements of aquatic life with emphasis on Canadian species: a review. J. Fish. Board Can. 32, 2295–2332 (1975).
2. Pörtner, H. O. & Peck, M. A. Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause‐and‐effect understanding. J. Fish. Biol. 77, 1745–1779 (2010).
3. Deutsch, C., Ferrel, A., Seibel, B., Pörtner, H. O. & Huey, R. B. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats. Science 348, 1132–1135 (2015).
4. Claireaux, G. & Chabot, D. Responses by fishes to environmental hypoxia: integration through Fry’s concept of aerobic metabolic scope. J. Fish. Biol. 88, 232–251 (2016).
5. Long, M. C., Ito, T. & Deutsch C. Ocean Deoxygenation: Everyone’s Problem - Causes, Impacts, Consequences And Solutions (eds Laffoley, D. & Baxter, J. M.) (Gland, 2019).
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献