Abstract
AbstractThe future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections.
Funder
UofI | University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
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