Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

Author:

Knutson Thomas1,Camargo Suzana J.2,Chan Johnny C. L.3,Emanuel Kerry4,Ho Chang-Hoi5,Kossin James6,Mohapatra Mrutyunjay7,Satoh Masaki8,Sugi Masato9,Walsh Kevin10,Wu Liguang11

Affiliation:

1. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

3. Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

4. Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

5. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

6. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information/Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, Wisconsin

7. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

8. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan

9. Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

10. School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

11. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Abstract

AbstractModel projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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