Abstract
AbstractMuch of the world’s population lives close to coastlines and this proximity is becoming increasingly impactful because of sea-level rise (SLR). Barrier islands and backbarrier saltmarshes, which comprise >10% of these coasts, are particularly susceptible. To better understand this risk, we model backbarrier morphologic and hydrodynamic evolution over a 200-year period of SLR, incorporating an erodible bed and a range of grain sizes. Here, we show that reduction in intertidal area creates negative feedback, shifting transport of coarse sediment (silt and sand) through the inlet from net export to net import. Imposing a modest marsh vertical accretion rate decreases the period of silt and sand import to 40 years (years 90 to 130) before being exported again. Clay is continuously exported thereby decreasing inorganic deposition on marshes and threatening their sustainability. Simulated marsh loss increases tidal prism and the volume of sand contained in ebb deltas, depleting coastal sand resources.
Funder
University of New Orleans
University of New Orleans, Office of Research and Sponsored Programs
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary
Reference84 articles.
1. Sweet, W. et al. Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. 75 (2022).
2. IPCC. Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Science (Cambridge University Press, 2007).
3. Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J. & Nicholls, R. J. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment. PLoS One 10, e0118571 (2015).
4. Kopp, R. E. et al. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, E1434–E1441 (2016).
5. Mann, M. E. & Emanuel, K. A. Atlantic Hurricane trends linked to climate change. Eos (Wash. DC) 87, 233–241 (2006).