Global risk assessment of compound hot-dry events in the context of future climate change and socioeconomic factors

Abstract

AbstractCompound hot-dry events have the potential to cause significant damages and propel socioeconomic systems towards tipping points by overwhelming the ability of natural and human systems to cope with the combined stressors. As climate change continues to alter hazard patterns, the impacts of these events will be further compounded by changes in exposure and vulnerability. However, the future risk of these events and the role of these components remain poorly understood. Using a multimodel ensemble, we find that by the end of the 21st century, an additional 0.7–1.7 billion people globally will be exposed to amplified compound events, depending on the scenarios. Additionally, the cropland exposure to these events is projected to increase by 2–5.7 million km². Our findings also suggest that countries with weak governance will experience a twice larger increase in the risk of compound events than those with good governance. This underscores the importance of effective governance in mitigating and managing the escalating risks of compound events.