Author:
Amores Angel,Marcos Marta,Le Cozannet Gonéri,Hinkel Jochen
Abstract
AbstractAtoll islands are among the places most vulnerable to climate change due to their low elevation above mean sea level. Even today, some of these islands suffer from severe flooding generated by wind-waves, that will be exacerbated with mean sea-level rise. Wave-induced flooding is a complex physical process that requires computationally-expensive numerical models to be reliably estimated, thus limiting its application to single island case studies. Here we present a new model-based parameterisation for wave setup and a set of numerical simulations for the wave-induced flooding in coral reef islands as a function of their morphology, the Manning friction coefficient, wave characteristics and projected mean sea level that can be used for rapid, broad scale (e.g. entire atoll island nations) flood risk assessments. We apply this new approach to the Maldives to compute the increase in wave hazard due to mean sea-level rise, as well as the change in island elevation or coastal protection required to keep wave-induced flooding constant. While future flooding in the Maldives is projected to increase drastically due to sea-level rise, we show that similar impacts in nearby islands can occur decades apart depending on the exposure to waves and the topobathymetry of each island. Such assessment can be useful to determine on which islands adaptation is most urgently needed.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference59 articles.
1. Nicholls, R. J. & Cazenave, A. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328, 1517–1520 (2010).
2. Duvat, V. K. E. A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. WIREs Clim. Change 10, 20 (2019).
3. Storlazzi, C. D. et al. Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding. Sci. Adv. 4, 20 (2018).
4. Kench, P. S., Ford, M. R. & Owen, S. D. Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations. Nat. Commun. 9, 20 (2018).
5. Cazenave, A. & Cozannet, G. L. Sea level rise and its coastal impacts. Earth’s Future 2, 15–34 (2014).
Cited by
23 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献