Author:
Brown Biobele J.,Manescu Petru,Przybylski Alexander A.,Caccioli Fabio,Oyinloye Gbeminiyi,Elmi Muna,Shaw Michael J.,Pawar Vijay,Claveau Remy,Shawe-Taylor John,Srinivasan Mandayam A.,Afolabi Nathaniel K.,Rees Geraint,Orimadegun Adebola E.,Ajetunmobi Wasiu A.,Akinkunmi Francis,Kowobari Olayinka,Osinusi Kikelomo,Akinbami Felix O.,Omokhodion Samuel,Shokunbi Wuraola A.,Lagunju Ikeoluwa,Sodeinde Olugbemiro,Fernandez-Reyes Delmiro
Abstract
AbstractOver 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal “monolithic” models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 104 participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10–2, MSE ≤ 7 × 10–3, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to − 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways.
Funder
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Medical Research Council
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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