Post-20th century near-steady state of Batura Glacier: observational evidence of Karakoram Anomaly

Abstract

AbstractStable or marginal mass loss dominating in Karakoram has been reported widely through satellite and ground investigations. This work aimed to verify the variation in glacier mass by collecting ground-based data. By tracking profiles from the first survey by China–Pakistan Batura Glacier Investigation Group in 1974–1975, we revisited Batura Glacier and conducted an updated comparable measurement of the glacier surface elevation and ice thickness of this large valley glacier of Karakoram, in August 2017. Results of ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurement were used to improve the accuracy of an ice thickness distribution model (GlabTop2). The model calculation agreed reasonably with the measurement when the optimal basal shear stress (100 kPa for clean ice to 140 kPa for heavy debris cover) and shape factor (0.9) were used. We then used a glacier bed topographies map to calculate the ice flux. By subtracting the glacier surface topographies from the remote-sensing measurements, we observed a marginal thinning in Batura during 2000–2016, with a rate of variation in glacier surface elevation of −0.12 ± 0.27 m a−1. It indicated that the mass gain in the accumulation area nearly compensated the mass loss in the ablation area. In addition, both ground and satellite remote measurement reveal a steady rate of decrease in surface of the Batura tongue, implying an absence of significant variation during the past 40 years. Moreover, the mass conservation equation was applied to the Batura tongue, in combination with surface elevation variation and ice flux evolution. The tongue-averaged mass balance diminished by more than half from the 1970s to the 2010s. In summary, we inferred a near-steady state of Batura Glacier post 2000 based on the above-mentioned evidence of “Karakoram Anomaly”.