Epidemiological characteristics and quarantine assessment of imported international COVID-19 cases, March to December 2020, Chengdu, China

Abstract

AbstractInternational flights have accelerated the global spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Determination of the optimal quarantine period for international travelers is crucial to prevent the local spread caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We performed a retrospective epidemiological study using 491 imported COVID-19 cases in Chengdu, China, to describe the characteristic of the cases and estimate the time from arrival to confirmation for international travelers using nonparametric survival methods. Among the 491 imported COVID-19 cases, 194 (39.5%) were asymptomatic infections. The mean age was 35.6 years (SD = 12.1 years) and 83.3% were men. The majority (74.1%) were screened positive for SARS-CoV-2, conducted by Chengdu Customs District, the People’s Republic of China. Asymptomatic cases were younger than presymptomatic or symptomatic cases (P < 0.01). The daily number of imported COVID-19 cases displayed jagged changes. 95% of COVID-19 cases were confirmed by PT-PCR within 14 days (95% CI 13–15) after arriving in Chengdu. A 14-day quarantine measure can ensure non-infection among international travelers with a 95% probability. Policymakers may consider an extension of the quarantine period to minimize the negative consequences of the COVID-19 confinement and prevent the international spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the government should consider the balance between COVID-19 and socioeconomic development, which may cause more serious social and health crises.