Abstract
AbstractDigitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today’s focus is on quantifying and predicting the climate effects of digitalization through various life-cycle assessments and baseline scenario methodologies. Here we argue that this is a mistake. Most attempts at prediction are based on three implicit assumptions: (a) the digital carbon footprint can be quantified, (b) business-as-usual with episodic change leading to a new era of stability, and (c) investments in digitalization will be delivered within the cost, timeframe, and benefits described in their business cases. We problematize each assumption within the context of digitalization and argue that the digital carbon footprint is inherently unpredictable. We build on uncertainty literature to show that even if you cannot predict, you can still mitigate. On that basis, we propose to rethink practice on the digital carbon footprint from prediction to mitigation.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference83 articles.
1. Barteková, E. & Börkey, P. Digitalisation for the Transition to a Resource Efficient and Circular Economy. OECD Environment Working Papers (OECD, 2022).
2. Freitag, C. et al. The real climate and transformative impact of ICT: a critique of estimates, trends, and regulations. Patterns 2, 100340 (2021).
3. Tzachor, A., Devare, M., King, B., Avin, S. & hÉigeartaigh, S. Responsible artificial intelligence in agriculture requires systemic understanding of risks and externalities. Nat. Mach. Intell. 4, 104–109 (2022).
4. Vinuesa, R. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat. Commun. 11, 233 (2020).
5. Muench, S. et al. Towards a Green & Digital Future. JRC Publications Repository https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC129319 (2022). https://doi.org/10.2760/977331.