Evaluation of animal and plant diversity suggests Greenland’s thaw hastens the biodiversity crisis

Abstract

AbstractRising temperatures can lead to the occurrence of a large-scale climatic event, such as the melting of Greenland ice sheet, weakening the AMOC and further increasing dissimilarities between current and future climate. The impacts of such an event are still poorly assessed. Here, we evaluate those impacts across megadiverse countries on 21,146 species of tetrapods and vascular plants using the pessimistic climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) and four different scenarios of Greenland’s ice sheet melting. We show that RCP 8.5 emission scenario would lead to a widespread reduction in species’ geographic ranges (28–48%), which is projected to be magnified (58–99%) with any added contribution from the melting of Greenland. Also, declines in the potential geographical extent of species hotspots (12–89%) and alterations of species composition (19–91%) will be intensified. These results imply that the influence of a strong and rapid Greenland ice sheet melting, resulting in a large AMOC weakening, can lead to a faster collapse of biodiversity across the globe.