Evolution history and the importance of genomic diversity facing climate change. The case of Agave marmorata Roezl., a microendemic agave used for mezcal production

Abstract

Social Impact StatementFor hundreds of years, Agave marmorata plants have been used in the production of alcoholic beverages in Mexico. This species is very important in small‐scale rural economies because it is a large plant, yielding five liters of mezcal. However, the production of these beverages takes place when it reaches its reproductive stage, which takes up to 35 years. Due to its slow maturation and high demand, it is considered an endangered species. Therefore, as a conservation strategy, this study proposes the creation of nurseries, genetic breeding programs, and demographic monitoring of wild populations to counteract the extraction of wild plants and, the conservation of the genetic diversity.Summary Agave marmorata Roezl., is an endemic species distributed in the states of Oaxaca and Puebla, Mexico, and locally is widely used to produce mezcal. We assessed the genomic diversity and differentiation using the RADseq method and 29,101 high‐quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in wild plants and grown under three different management types (cultivated, plants used as live fences, and young plants growing in nurseries). We examined the demographic history and used species distribution modeling to understand the future of A. marmorata under scenarios of climate change. We found high levels of genomic diversity (HS = 0.229) and moderate levels of inbreeding (FIS = 0.106 and Fhat3 = 0.190). The cultivated samples harbored less genetic diversity than the wild plants. Furthermore, we estimated low differentiation between cultivated and wild localities (FST = 0.037). In the wild samples, we identified two main genetic groups, one in the East and another in the West of its distribution area. This genetic structure possibly derived from a population contraction during the Pleistocene (~216,879.75 BP) and the formation of two refugia in small areas with climatic stability. Furthermore, the demographic reconstruction indicated that A. marmorata went through a recent population expansion event, with a large current Ne (Ne = 8,009). The future climate change models indicated contrasting possible changes in its distribution range, from an increase to the reduction of its suitable habitat, differences related to model parametrization, and future levels of CO2 production. We propose conservation measures for the different management types of the species while also considering the biotic and abiotic interactions of Agave marmorata.