A natural constant predicts survival to maximum age

Author:

Dureuil ManuelORCID,Froese RainerORCID

Abstract

AbstractInformation about the survival of species is important in many ecological applications. Yet, the estimation of a species’ natural mortality rate M remains a major problem in the management and conservation of wild populations, often circumvented by applying empirical equations that relate mortality to other traits that are more easily observed. We show that mean adult M can be approximated from the general law of decay if the average maximum age reached by individuals in a cohort is known. This is possible because the proportion P of individuals surviving to the average maximum age in a cohort is surprisingly similar across a wide range of examined species at 1.5%. The likely reason for the narrow range of P is a universal increase in the rate of mortality near the end of life, providing strong evidence that the evolutionary theories of ageing are the norm in natural populations.

Funder

Canada First Research Excellence Fund

Bundesamt für Naturschutz

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,Medicine (miscellaneous)

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