Amplified warming from physiological responses to carbon dioxide reduces the potential of vegetation for climate change mitigation

Abstract

AbstractGlobal warming is increasing due to the ongoing rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, and has the potential to threaten humans and ecosystems severely. Carbon dioxide, the primary rising greenhouse gas, also enhances vegetation carbon uptake, partially offsetting emissions. The vegetation physiological response to rising carbon dioxide, through partial stomatal closure and leaf area increase, can also amplify global warming, yet this is rarely accounted for in climate mitigation assessments. Using six Earth System Models, we show that vegetation physiological response consistently amplifies warming as carbon dioxide rises, primarily due to stomatal closure-induced evapotranspiration reductions. Importantly, such warming partially offsets cooling through enhanced carbon storage. We also find a stronger warming with higher leaf area and less warming with lower leaf area. Our study shows that the vegetation physiological response to elevated carbon dioxide influences local climate, which may reduce the extent of expected climate benefits offered by terrestrial ecosystems.