Agricultural development has not necessarily caused forest cover decline in semi-arid northern China over the past 12,000 years

Author:

Hao Qian,Han Yue,Liu HongyanORCID,Cheng Ying

Abstract

AbstractForest cover significantly affects the global carbon cycle, biodiversity, and human welfare, but is seriously threatened by human activities. Here we found that anthropogenic forces did not necessarily lead to forest cover decline in the marginal agricultural region of northern China based on a quantitative reconstruction of 12,000-years forest cover changes using modern analog technique and random forest. The forest cover was strongly affected by human activities in the core agricultural region, as indicated by the high independent effects of archeological sites (38.3%) and burning area (42.3%). In contrast, climate impacted the forest cover in the marginal agricultural region, where the annual precipitation and summer mean temperature contributed 52.4% and 27.4%, respectively. Agricultural development in the marginal agricultural region likely occurred in the river valley or sunny slopes, not overlapping with zonal forests growing on shady slopes. This study implies much less afforestation potential than previously expected in the marginal agricultural region.

Funder

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science

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