The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation

Author:

Caldara Dario1ORCID,Conlisk Sarah1,Iacoviello Matteo1,Penn Maddie1

Affiliation:

1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract

Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war."

Publisher

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Subject

General Medicine

Reference5 articles.

1. Anayi, Lena, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, And Ivan Yotzov (2022), "the Impact Of The War In Ukraine On Economic Uncertainty", Voxeu.Org, 16 April.

2. Measuring Geopolitical Risk

3. Monitoring the World Economy: A Global Conditions Index

4. Costs of Proximity to War Zones: Stock Market Responses to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

5. Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment

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