Affiliation:
1. Université Montpellier 2, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
2. CNRS, IRD Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
Abstract
Evolutionary rescue occurs when a population genetically adapts to a new stressful environment that would otherwise cause its extinction. Forecasting the probability of persistence under stress, including emergence of drug resistance as a special case of interest, requires experimentally validated quantitative predictions. Here, we propose general analytical predictions, based on diffusion approximations, for the probability of evolutionary rescue. We assume a narrow genetic basis for adaptation to stress, as is often the case for drug resistance. First, we extend the rescue model of Orr & Unckless (
Am. Nat.
2008
172
, 160–169) to a broader demographic and genetic context, allowing the model to apply to empirical systems with variation among mutation effects on demography, overlapping generations and bottlenecks, all common features of microbial populations. Second, we confront our predictions of rescue probability with two datasets from experiments with
Saccharomyces cerevisiae
(yeast) and
Pseudomonas fluorescens
(bacterium). The tests show the qualitative agreement between the model and observed patterns, and illustrate how biologically relevant quantities, such as the
per capita
rate of rescue, can be estimated from fits of empirical data. Finally, we use the results of the model to suggest further, more quantitative, tests of evolutionary rescue theory.
Subject
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Cited by
100 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献