Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:

Piraveenan Mahendra12ORCID,Sawleshwarkar Shailendra345ORCID,Walsh Michael64,Zablotska Iryna34,Bhattacharyya Samit7ORCID,Farooqui Habib Hassan5,Bhatnagar Tarun8,Karan Anup5,Murhekar Manoj8,Zodpey Sanjay5,Rao K. S. Mallikarjuna9,Pattison Philippa10,Zomaya Albert11,Perc Matjaz121314ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Complex Systems Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

2. Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

3. Westmead Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

4. Marie Bashir Institute of Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

5. Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India

6. School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

7. Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar University, Uttar Pradesh, India

8. ICMR-National Institute of Epidemiology, Chennai, India

9. Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India

10. Office of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

11. School of Computer Science, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia

12. Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia

13. Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan

14. Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Abstract

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models should be used to guide decisions pertaining to vaccination programmes for the best possible results. In the months following the introduction of vaccines, their availability and the human resources needed to run the vaccination programmes have been scarce in many countries. Vaccine hesitancy is also being encountered from some sections of the general public. We emphasize that decision-making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, is a unique forte of established game-theoretic modelling. Therefore, we can use this approach to obtain the best framework for modelling and simulating vaccination prioritization and uptake that will be readily available to inform important policy decisions for the optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Funder

Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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