The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases

Abstract

The basic reproduction number Ro is the number of secondary cases which one case would produce in a completely susceptible population. It depends on the duration of the infectious period, the probability of infecting a susceptible individual during one contact, and the number of new susceptible individuals contacted per unit of time. Therefore Ro may vary considerably for different infectious diseases but also for the same disease in different populations. The key threshold result of epidemic theory associates the outbreaks of epidemics and the persistence of endemic levels with basic reproduction numbers greater than one. Because the magnitude of R0 allows one to determine the amount of effort which is necessary either to prevent an epidemic or to eliminate an infection from a population, it is crucial to estimate Ro for a given disease in a particular population. The present paper gives a survey about the various estimation methods available.