Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model

Published:2023-12 Issue:209 Volume:20 Page:
ISSN:1742-5662
Container-title:Journal of The Royal Society Interface
language:en
Short-container-title:J. R. Soc. Interface.

Author:

Nguyen Maximilian M.¹^ORCID,Freedman Ari S.²,Ozbay Sinan A.³,Levin Simon A.²^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Lewis-Sigler Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA

2. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA

3. Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA

Abstract

We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack–McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984 · · · occurs at R 0 ∗ = 2.151 ⋯ . In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with R 0 near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination.

Funder

National Science Foundation

William H. Miller III 2018 Trust

Army Research Office

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Biomedical Engineering,Biochemistry,Biomaterials,Bioengineering,Biophysics,Biotechnology

Link

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsif.2023.0322

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