Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

Published:2021-01-15 Issue:6526 Volume:371 Page:288-292
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Buss Lewis F.¹^ORCID,Prete Carlos A.²^ORCID,Abrahim Claudia M. M.³^ORCID,Mendrone Alfredo⁴⁵^ORCID,Salomon Tassila⁶⁷^ORCID,de Almeida-Neto Cesar⁴⁵^ORCID,França Rafael F. O.⁸^ORCID,Belotti Maria C.²^ORCID,Carvalho Maria P. S. S.³^ORCID,Costa Allyson G.³^ORCID,Crispim Myuki A. E.³^ORCID,Ferreira Suzete C.⁴⁵^ORCID,Fraiji Nelson A.³,Gurzenda Susie⁹^ORCID,Whittaker Charles¹⁰^ORCID,Kamaura Leonardo T.¹¹,Takecian Pedro L.¹¹,da Silva Peixoto Pedro¹¹^ORCID,Oikawa Marcio K.¹²^ORCID,Nishiya Anna S.⁴⁵^ORCID,Rocha Vanderson⁴⁵^ORCID,Salles Nanci A.⁴^ORCID,de Souza Santos Andreza Aruska¹³^ORCID,da Silva Martirene A.³^ORCID,Custer Brian¹⁴¹⁵^ORCID,Parag Kris V.¹⁶^ORCID,Barral-Netto Manoel¹⁷^ORCID,Kraemer Moritz U. G.¹⁸^ORCID,Pereira Rafael H. M.¹⁹^ORCID,Pybus Oliver G.¹⁸^ORCID,Busch Michael P.¹⁴¹⁵^ORCID,Castro Márcia C.⁹^ORCID,Dye Christopher¹⁸^ORCID,Nascimento Vítor H.²^ORCID,Faria Nuno R.¹¹⁶¹⁸^ORCID,Sabino Ester C.¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

2. Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

3. Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil.

4. Fundação Pró-Sangue–Hemocentro de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

5. Laboratório de Investigação Médica em Patogênese e Terapia dirigida em Onco-Imuno-Hematologia (LIM-31), Departamento de Hematologia, Hospital das Clínicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

6. Fundação Hemominas–Fundação Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

7. Faculdade Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

8. Department of Virology and Experimental Therapy, Institute Aggeu Magalhaes, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Brazil.

9. Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

10. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

11. Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.

12. Center of Mathematics, Computing and Cognition–Universidade Federal do ABC, São Paulo, Brazil.

13. Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Latin American Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

14. Vitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA.

15. University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.

16. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK.

17. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz–Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Salvador, Brazil.

18. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

19. Institute for Applied Economic Research–Ipea, Brasília, Brazil.

Abstract

Attack rate in Manaus Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence peaked in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020 with a devastating toll on the city's inhabitants, leaving its health services shattered and cemeteries overwhelmed. Buss et al. collected data from blood donors from Manaus and São Paulo, noted when transmission began to fall, and estimated the final attack rates in October 2020 (see the Perspective by Sridhar and Gurdasani). Heterogeneities in immune protection, population structure, poverty, modes of public transport, and uneven adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions mean that despite a high attack rate, herd immunity may not have been achieved. This unfortunate city has become a sentinel for how natural population immunity could influence future transmission. Events in Manaus reveal what tragedy and harm to society can unfold if this virus is left to run its course. Science , this issue p. 288 ; see also p. 230

Funder

Medical Research Council

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

Itau Unibanco Todos pela Saude

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference41 articles.

1. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in Brazil: results from two successive nationwide serological household surveys

2. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

3. Explosão da mortalidade no epicentro amazônico da epidemia de COVID-19