Occam’s razor gets a new edge: the use of symmetries in model selection

Abstract

We demonstrate the power of using symmetries for model selection in the context of mechanistic modelling. We analyse two different models called the power law model (PLM) and the immunological model (IM) describing the increase in cancer risk with age, due to mutation accumulation or immunosenescence, respectively. The IM fits several cancer types better than the PLM implying that it would be selected based on minimizing residuals. However, recently a symmetry-based method for model selection has been developed, which has been successfully used in an in silico setting to find the correct model when traditional model fitting has failed. Here, we apply this method in a real-world setting to investigate the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. First, we derive distinct symmetry transformations of the two models and then we select the model which not only fits the original data but is also invariant under transformations by its symmetry. Contrary to the initial conclusion, we conclude that the PLM realistically describes the mechanism underlying the colon cancer dataset. These conclusions agree with experimental knowledge, and this work demonstrates how a model selection criterion based on biological properties can be implemented using symmetries.