The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis

Author:

Bodini Antonio1ORCID,Vivian Jenny12,Vargas Juan3,Clerici Nicola4,Scotti Marco56ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma , Parma 43124, Italy

2. Forest Research Institute, University of Sunshine Coast , Sippy Downs, Queensland, Australia

3. Department of Socio-Economic Mathematical and Statistical Sciences ESOMAS, School of Management and Economics, University of Turin, Corso Unione Sovietica, 218 bis , Turin 10134, Italy

4. Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Universidad del Rosario , Bogotá, DC, Colombia

5. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel , Kiel, Germany

6. Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources, National Research Council of Italy , Sesto Fiorentino, Firenze 50019, Italy

Abstract

In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions’.

Publisher

The Royal Society

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis;Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences;2024-07-22

2. Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions;Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences;2024-07-22

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