Mechanical analogue for cities

Abstract

Motivated from the increasing need to develop a science-based, predictive understanding of the dynamics and response of cities when subjected to natural hazards, in this paper, we apply concepts from statistical mechanics and microrheology to develop mechanical analogues for cities with predictive capabilities. We envision a city to be a matrix where cell-phone users are driven by the city’s economy and other incentives while using the collection of its infrastructure networks in a similar way that thermally driven Brownian particles are moving within a complex viscoelastic material. Mean-square displacements of thousands of cell-phone users are computed from GPS location data to establish the creep compliance and the resulting impulse response function of a city. The derivation of these time-response functions allows the synthesis of simple mechanical analogues that model satisfactorily the city’s behaviour under normal conditions. Our study concentrates on predicting the response of cities to acute shocks (natural hazards) that are approximated with a rectangular pulse; and we show that the derived solid-like mechanical networks predict that cities revert immediately to their pre-event response suggesting an inherent resilience. Our findings are in remarkable good agreement with the recorded response of the Dallas metroplex following the February 2021 North American winter storm.