Socio-Economic Development of Russia in 2018-2020: Recession Threatening Stagnation

Abstract

The article presents the authors’ point of view on the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2018 and provides an analytical assessment of forecasts for 2019 and 2020 and estimates for the immediate prospects for the development of the country. The focus is on ensuring the implementation of the May (2018) Decree of the President of the Russian Federation.The authors analyzed the state and confirmed directions to overcome stagnation, first of all, by eliminating the lag in the technological level of production and ensuring the growth in labor productivity, enhancing business, investment and consumer activity, increasing the efficiency of capital investments as key factors affecting the growth in the real sector and the knowledge economy, including industrial production , agriculture, capital construction.The paper highlights the weak links in the current management system and proposes measures to overcome the existing structural crisis. There is a need for a socio-economic policy change that should be aimed at ensuring the health of a nation.The authors compared Russian and global trends in key development indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, foreign trade.A comparative assessment of the 2020 and 2021 forecasts of the considered key macroeconomic indicators (including the real sector of the economy as a driver of socio-economic progress) is presented. The projected in 2019 and 2020 slowdown in the global economy, the expected fall in global trade and the expansion of trade wars and sanctions, as well as the existing import dependence may contribute to the growing negative trend in the Russian economy and lead to stagnation escalating into recession.