Legal Decisions and the Reference Class Problem

Author:

Colyvan Mark1,Regan Helen M.2

Affiliation:

1. Professor of Philosophy, University of Sydney

2. Assistant Professor of Biology, University of California

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Law,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Sociology and Political Science

Reference30 articles.

1. For example, see L. H. Tribe, `Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process' (1971) 84Harvard Law Review1329, and, more recently, R. W. Wright, `Causation, Responsibility, Risk, Probability, Naked Statistics, and Proof: Pruning the Bramble Bush by Clarifying the Concepts' (1998) 73Iowa Law Review1001, J. L. Gastwirth,Statistical Science in the Courtroom(Springer-Verlag: New York, 2000) and P. Tillers, `Introduction: Three Contributions to Three Important Problems in Evidence Scholarship' (1997) 18Cardozo Law Review1875.

2. See M. Colyvan, H. M. Regan and S. Ferson, `Is It a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class?' (2001) 9Journal of Political Philosophy168 (reprinted in H. E. Kyburg and M. Thalos (eds),Probability Is the Very Guide of Life(Open Court: Chicago, 2003)), P. Tillers, `If Wishes Were Horses: Discursive Comments on Attempts to Prevent Individuals from Being Unfairly Burdened by their Reference Classes' (2005) 4Law, Probability, and Risk33 and R. J. Allen and M. S. Pardo, `The Problematic Value of Mathematical Models of Evidence' (2007) 36Journal of Legal Studies107.

3. A. Hajek, `The Reference Class Problem is Your Problem Too' (2007) 156Synthese563.

4. United StatesvShonubi, 962 F Supp 370 (EDNY 1997);United StatesvShonubi, 103 F 3d 1085 (2d Cir. 1997);United StatesvShonubi, 895 F Supp 460 (EDNY 1995);United StatesvShonubi, 998 F 2d 84 (2d Cir. 1993);United StatesvShonubi, 802 F Supp 859 (EDNY 1992).

5. Even here the quantity in question was estimated by some rather crude statistical techniques.

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